Former Prime Minister Set to Win Kyrgyzstan Vote

by admin on Monday, October 31st, 2011 | No Comments

Voters went to the polls on Sunday, seeking an end to years of political turmoil, though some said they feared the vote could expose the regional and ethnic divisions that nearly tore the country apart last year.

It was the first presidential election since the bloody ouster in April 2010 of Kyrgyzstan’s authoritarian leader, Kurmanbek S. Bakiyev. That was followed by an explosion of violence between ethnic Kyrgyz and minority Uzbeks in the south of the country that led to nearly 500 deaths.

In the year and a half since, there have been no other major outbreaks of violence, though people in this former Soviet republic of about five million remain on edge.

“There is calm, yes, but it is not clear how long it will last,” said Kalia Kalchanbayeva, 53, who was selling cookies outside a polling place here in Bishkek, the capital, on Sunday. “What we need now is quiet.”

Like others across the political spectrum, Mr. Atambayev is seen as a supporter of closer ties with Moscow, including membership of a Russian-led customs union that already includes Belarus and Kazakhstan. Mr. Atambayev, who was prime minister until stepping down in September to concentrate on his campaign, even sponsored a bill this year naming a mountain in Kyrgyzstan after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin.

Much of the Kyrgyz elite, even those seen as strongly pro-Western, seems to believe that the country has little choice but to cast its lot with Russia. Many are suspicious of growing Chinese influence in the region. But perhaps more important, they fear abandonment by the United States.

The American military base at Manas airport, near Bishkek, is crucial to supplying NATO forces in Afghanistan and is a big source of revenue for the Kyrgyz government. The lease on the base ends in 2014, the same year President Obama has vowed to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, a prospect viewed with foreboding by some here.

“We will without a doubt move in the direction of the customs union and probably also the Eurasian Union,” said Roza Otunbayeva, who will step down as caretaker president at the end of the year. ”The exit of NATO forces in 2014 leaves us no other choice if we want to preserve our security.”

Tens of thousands of Kyrgyz migrants work in Russia, sending money back to families at home.

The election on Sunday was closely by international observers, particularly from the United States and Russia, both of which maintain military bases in Kyrgyzstan.

Across Bishkek, election billboards offered promises of stability and renewed hope for the future, but at some polling places on Sunday, men in camouflage stood guard cradling assault rifles.

Observers say many Kyrgyz have grown cynical after years of political and social upheaval, and have little trust in the authorities.

“People are tired of protests; they do not want any more blood,” Mr. Atambayev said outside a polling place. “We’ve already had enough revolution. It’s time to work.”

Russia, which has backed particular Kyrgyz leaders in the past, played a less visible role in this election.

Rather, the vote came to underscore traditional rivalries between north and south Kyrgyzstan. Mr. Atambayev, a northerner, faced stiff competition from two candidates from the south, including a former boxer known for getting into fistfights as a member of Parliament. Several candidates on Sunday vowed to reject results they considered illegitimate, prompting fears of future protests.

Independent analysts said they expected electoral violations to be minimal. The authorities raised eyebrows by banning local cable stations from broadcasting foreign channels like CNN and the BBC as the election approached. And they put Russian channels, which many Kyrgyz rely on for their news, on an hour delay. Officials said they wanted to prevent foreign intervention in the vote.

Still, in a region long dominated by authoritarian leaders, Sunday’s election was remarkable in that the outcome was not generally known beforehand. More than 80 candidates had declared their intentions to run in the election, though that number shrank to 16 by Election Day.

Since the violence last year, a caretaker government led by Ms. Otunbayeva has ushered in reforms intended to prevent future discord, including watering down the president’s powers and creating Central Asia’s first parliamentary republic.

There are now five political factions represented in the Parliament, a power-sharing arrangement that many here hope will allow Kyrgyzstan to curb the often-violent political rivalries of the past.

Ms. Otunbayeva has vowed to step down at the end of the year, making her the first leader in Kyrgyzstan, and in all of former Soviet Central Asia for that matter, to leave power voluntarily since the Soviet collapse. Armed mobs drove both of her predecessors out of the country.

Some, however, are unhappy to see Ms. Otunbayeva go.

“I am so happy that we had this woman take this large burden upon her shoulders at a time when all the men were frightened to do so,” said Ishen Dzhangadiyev, a 55-year-old teacher. “She created stability, even though there were those who did not want it.”